USDA Issues First Forecast of 2006-07 Corn Crop, NCGA Notes (5-12-06)

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) today released its monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE), which included the first estimate of the 2006-07 corn crop, the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) notes.

USDA is projecting a 10.55 billion bushel crop with 149 bushels per acre average yield. In 2005, corn growers harvested 11.112 billion bushels and averaged 147.9 bushels per acre.

“The lower total projection is based on USDA’s forecast that producers were planning on planting less corn acres this year,” said Paul Bertels, NCGA director of biotechnology.

USDA projects 78 million acres of corn will be planted this year, down from more than 81 million in 2005. Revised crop acreage estimates are expected in June.

On the demand side, USDA is projecting feed and residual will total 5.95 billion bushels, down slightly from last year. Food, seed and industrial will expand to 3.545 billion. The majority of the increase is caused by increased ethanol production, which is forecasted to hit 2.15 billion bushels of the total crop, a 550 million bushel increase over 2005. USDA is also forecasting export expansion to 2.15 billion. As a result of projected lower total production, carry out is expected to decline to 1.14 billion bushels.

“With more than 1 billion bushels expected to be carried over to 2007, consumers can be assured there will be more than enough corn for all industries: livestock, ethanol, exports and food,” Bertels said.

The report indicates U.S. corn exports were increased by another 75 million bushels from the April report to 2.025 billion, resulting in a reduction in carry out from the 2005-06 marketing year to 2.226 billion.

Key international revisions were a 0.5 million metric tonne (MMT) increase in Argentine corn exports, following a similar reduction in feed demand. Chinese corn exports remained unchanged at 5 MMT. The Chinese import numbers were reduced slightly to 0.03 MMT, and Chinese corn stocks were also lowered by 0.08 MMT. Mexican and Southeast Asian corn imports were raised 0.8 MMT (7.5 total) and 0.4 MMT (3.56 total), respectively.

To access the WASDE report, click here.