Oct. 16:The U.S. Grains Council said the outlook for U.S. coarse grains exports this marketing year looks “cheerful.” The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Oct. 9, indicates global corn production down 59 million bushels this year, with reductions in China, Russia and a number of smaller countries.

China’s corn production, for example, is lowered 196.8 million bushels on confirmation that unusual heat and dryness during late July and early August severely hampered corn pollination in the western growing areas of Northeast China.

“Global demand is strong and global production is projected down,” said USGC Special Assistant for Planning, Evaluation and Projects Erick Erickson. “This leaves U.S. farmers in a competitive position considering USDA projects a near record corn crop of 13 billion bushels.”

USDA’s report projects corn exports down 50 million bushels from last month’s report. Erickson said while exports are projected lower, the estimated 2.1 billion bushels is still greater than last year’s 1.8 billion bushels. He said it is too early in the marketing year to know where exports will fall, but he remains optimistic the world economy will continue to make a “turnaround” and provide additional opportunities for U.S. coarse grains.

Erickson said the U.S. dollar continues to weaken even as the economy begins to recover. This will also be a contributing factor to making U.S. coarse grains attractive to global end-users. Specifically, the value of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies has been on a slippery slope throughout the global financial crisis, and at times the falls have been steeper as signs of recovery become stronger.

While there are many factors that leave him optimistic about coarse grains exports this marketing year, Erickson said it is critical to take nothing for granted.

“The demand is out there and we will have the supplies to meet all domestic and international needs,” he said. “However, we cannot assume exports will just happen. This marketing year will be very much about market defense as competition intensifies. Some top competitors will have a short crop this year but countries like Canada are going to have greater supplies for the global marketplace. Global coarse grains production is down but larger world wheat supplies will stiffen competition for U.S. corn exports. As I’ve always said, exports aren’t a spectator’s sport. We must be on the ground promoting U.S. corn, barley, sorghum and their co-products and marketing their advantages.”