Lowered supply projections and increased yield forecasts may bump the price farmers receive for a bushel of corn upward by ten cents according to U.S. Department of Agriculture reports released today. Given the shift was, in large part, due to strong exports, the information reinforces the incredible economic importance of U.S. trade policies that allow for further demand growth.
This report indicated no change to projected production since the month prior. If realized, the yield, projected to 174 bushels per acre, would be the third-highest yield on record.
Beginning stocks projections were lowered to reflect a 75-million-bushel increase in 2017/2018 projected exports to 2.3 billion bushels. If realized, this would be the highest export level since 2007/2008. Notably, April exports hit a record high, surpassing November 1989 which was the best prior month to that point. May exports are expected to remain strong given export inspection data.
The report also indicates that old crop outstanding sales at this point in the marketing year also set a record high.
With an increased use of 50 million bushels projected due to higher demand from the ethanol sector, feed and residual use projections were lowered by 25 million bushels from last month reflecting the increased availability of ethanol coproducts as well as higher projected prices.
As supply projections fell and yield projections rose, ending stocks projections were adjusted downward by 105 million bushels to 1.57 billion bushels. If realized, this would be the lowest level since 2013/2014. The 2018/19 season-average corn price received by farmers is projected to be between $3.40 to $4.40 per bushel, a 10 cent-per-bushel increase from the previous month.
NCGA is taking a series of actions to do our part to help contain the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and the economic fallout it is creating for corn farmers and our customers. Short term, this means instituting policies to protect the health and safety of our stakeholders and the broader communities we serve. Long term, we’re focused on creating solutions to help corn farmers and our customers recover from the financial impacts of this crisis.
CommonGround is a group of farmers connecting with consumers through conversations about science and research and personal stories about food and misinformation surrounding farming. Supported by the NCGA and state corn organizations.
The Soil Health Partnership (SHP) is a farmer-led initiative that fosters transformation in agriculture through improved soil health. Administered by NCGA the partnership has more than 220 working farms enrolled in 16 states. SHP’s mission is to utilize science and data to partner with farmers who are adopting conservation agricultural practices that improve the economic and environmental sustainability of the farm.