Corn Price Projections Fall on Forecast of Near-Record Production

September 12, 2018

Corn Price Projections Fall on Forecast of Near-Record Production

Sep 12, 2018

Key Issues:Production

The already record national average yield projections were raised even further this month to 181.3 bushels per acre from 178.4 the month prior which, if realized, would surpass the previous record by 4.7 bushels per acre according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Given record yield projections, U.S. total corn production is now projected to reach 14.8 billion bushels for 2018/19, nearing the record of 15.1 billion bushels set in 2016. Given increased demand projections, corn price projections were lowered 10 cents at the midpoint to reflect the anticipated size of the supply.


Yield projections are also forecast to set records in many states including: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota. The overall increase to projected yield, if realized, led to the 241 million bushel per acre increase to production estimates.


Feed and residual use and export demand projections were raised by 50 million bushels each, with ethanol demand estimates raised by 25 million bushels. As the increase to production projections more than offset these demand increases, the average farm price was decreased by 10 cents, with the new price range projected as $3.00 to $4.00 per bushel.  


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