America’s corn farmers are projected to produce the smallest corn crop since 2015 according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports released today. The production decrease is the result of a national average yield forecast of 168.0 bushels per acre, the lowest since 2013. Notably, the corn acreage harvested in 2019 very slightly, by less than one percentage point, than was in 2018.
Significant decreases in year-over-year average yields were seen in many states, with Illinois down by 29 bushels per acre and Ohio and Indiana also more than 20 bushels per acre below state averages from 2018. The yield decreases were partially offset by states with increased year-over-year averages such as Texas, which was up by 23 bushels per acre and Maryland and Missouri, which both saw 15 bushels per acre increases over the previous year.
The largest overall production decrease was seen in Illinois, which is forecast to have produced 421,800 less bushels than the year prior. South Dakota, Ohio and Indiana also saw significantly fewer bushels produced in 2019 in comparison with 2018. Projections indicate the most significant production increase from 2018 was seen in Kansas, where 158,240 more bushels were produced than in 2018.
Notably, the National Agricultural Statistics Service Agricultural Statistics Board will re-contact respondents who reported acreage but had not been able to harvest yet in Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin in the spring, once they have had the chance to harvest those acres. NASS will issue any changes which this data much justify in a future report.
Increased demand in the feed and residual category which was raised by 250 million bushels over last month, more than offset reductions to forecast demand in the export and food, seed and industrial categories. This resulted in higher overall use forecasts for corn, which were raised by 155 million bushels over the December 2019 report.
The price expected for the crop is projected at $3.85 per bushel.
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