In The News

Jan 13, 2023

USDA Lowers Expected Corn Ending Stocks for 2022/23

Key Issues: Research

Author: Krista Swanson

The following is a brief analysis by Krista Swanson, the lead economist for the National Corn Growers Association.   The United States Department of Agriculture released the January World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) report yesterday. The expected reductions in use were met with notable changes to U.S. production that resulted in lower-than-expected ending stocks for the 2022/23 marketing year.   As compared to the December WASDE report, a 200 million bushel drop in total production was spurred by a 1.6 million acre cut in final 2022 harvested acres, more than offsetting a one bushel per acre increase in yield to 173.3 bushels per acre. The downward adjustment to 79.2 million harvested acres brings 2022 harvested acres to the lowest level since 2008. This translates to 89.4% of planted corn acres harvested in 2022, the lowest share of planted acres harvested since 2002.   The decline in harvested acres from the December report was highly concentrated in four...

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Dec 22, 2022

Review Commissioned by NCGA Confirms USDA is a Vital Source of Market Information for Corn Growers

Key Issues: Research

Author: Krista Swanson

Krista Swanson, the National Corn Growers Association’s lead economist, provides an analysis of a newly published independent study on the accuracy and market impact of USDA information on corn markets.   The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) collects survey data from farmers that is used as a basis for forecasts in several publicly published reports and databases. Agriculture economists, like me, frequently use USDA information in articles and studies that benefit farmers and our industry.   In recent years growers have raised concerns about the complexity of the survey process, report accuracy and declining survey participation. The declining survey response rates have left USDA with a growing rate of insufficient data not only limiting what can be published, but also limiting ways data can be of value to farmers in return. As an example, when making the 2019/2020 farm program selection, farmers in counties with unpublished 2019 county survey yields, which would...

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Dec 12, 2022

USDA Lowers Expected Corn Exports and Raises Ending Stocks for 2022/23

Key Issues: Production

Author: Krista Swanson

The following is a brief analysis by Krista Swanson, the lead economist for the National Corn Growers Association.   The United States Department of Agriculture released the December World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday. Most United States grain and oilseeds estimates were unchanged from last month. Citing slow sales and shipments through early December and competition from other exporters, the USDA lowered corn exports for the 2022/23 marketing year by 75 million bushels resulting in an equivalent increase in projected ending stocks with no other changes on the corn balance sheet. To dig into USDA’s assessment of slow sales, here is a look at corn export sales so far this marketing year. With data through Week 14 of the marketing year, weekly exports for 2022/23 are represented by the solid blue line. Exports to date in this year are notably trailing last year and the five-year average pace represented by the blue dashed and dotted lines. The...

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